Why Bitcoin Is Stuck at $90,000 in December 2025 (And When It Will Finally Break Out)
If you’ve been staring at your screen lately wondering why Bitcoin refuses to go above $92,000 or drop below $88,000, you’re not alone. Right now, as I’m writing this, BTC is trading at $90,180… again. Same range it’s been in for the last 12 days straight.
It feels like the entire crypto market is holding its breath. And honestly, there are three massive reasons why.
1. Everyone Is Waiting for This Wednesday’s CPI Number
Mark your calendar: December 18, 2025 – U.S. November CPI data drops at 8:30 a.m. ET.
If inflation comes in hot (above 2.7%), traders will dump risk assets fast because that kills the chance of a January rate cut. If it comes in cool (2.4% or lower), we’re probably blasting straight to $100K before New Year.
Until that number hits, whales aren’t taking big positions. Simple as that.
2. Spot Bitcoin ETFs Are Taking a Breather
BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC had insane inflows in October and November – but things have slowed down hard in December. Last week we saw only $180M net inflow compared to $2B+ weeks before.
Why? Institutional desks are waiting for year-end bonus numbers and fresh 2026 mandates. They’ll start buying again in January – you guessed it – right on cue.
3. Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Talk Got Priced In Already
Everyone got super excited when President-elect Trump kept repeating he wants America to hold 1 million BTC as a reserve asset. The market front-ran that narrative to $109K in November.
Now reality is setting in: nothing gets signed until at least late January, and Congress still has to agree. So the hype is on pause.
So When Does the Breakout Actually Happen?
Here are the three dates I’m watching like a hawk:
- Dec 18 – CPI print (expect 5-10% move in 24 hours)
- Jan 20 – Inauguration Day (symbolic rocket fuel)
- Jan 29-30 – First FOMC meeting of 2026
Every time Bitcoin has consolidated this tightly in the past (look at 2020 and 2023), the breakout was violent. I wouldn’t be surprised to see $80K or $110K before February.
What I’m Doing With My Own Portfolio
Personally, I’m holding 60% spot BTC, 20% cash waiting under $88K, and 20% in 3x leveraged longs above $93K. That way I’m covered no matter which way it breaks.
Whatever you do, don’t FOMO at the top of the range and don’t panic-sell the bottom. The real money is made by those who wait for confirmation.
Drop a comment if you think we hit $100K before Christmas or if we dump first. Let’s talk!
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Always do your own research.